Predicting water level drawdown and assessment of land subsidence in Damghan aquifer by combining GMS and GEP models

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Faculty of Agriculture, University of Shahrood, Shahrood, Iran

2 Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Shahrood, Shahrood, Iran



It is over two decades that groundwater flow models are routinely implemented for better management of groundwater resources.
Modeling groundwater flow with the help of the ground water modeling system (GMS) in the Damghan plain aquifer in northern Iran,
which experiences declining levels and numerous environmental hazards, has demonstrated that, (a) in the worst case scenario the
aquifer will face 320 cm of drawdown by year 2019 and (b) land subsidence is observed mainly in areas that are subjected to an
accelerated water level drawdown rate, such as, the southern part of the aquifer. Four different rainfall scenarios that have been
modeled demonstrate that some areas of the aquifer are slightly impacted by climatic change in contrast to some other areas that are
being influenced substantially. Together with GMS, Genetic Expression Programming (GEP) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
models were used to forecast land subsidence by applying developing functional relations to the long-term groundwater drawdown
data. This segment of the study shows that a 35.4 cm and 39.45 cm settlement will occur if the groundwater level drops by 295 cm and
343 cm, respectively. This research shows that the water level in the Damghan aquifer continues to decline and the land subsidence
will intensify. It is, therefore, needed to reduce groundwater pumping in high-risk areas.


Article Title [Persian]

پیش بینی اقت سطح آب و ارزیابی فرونشست زمین در آبخوان دامغان با ترکیب مدلهای جی ام اس و جی ای پی

Authors [Persian]

  • سکینه پرهیزکار 1
  • خلیل اژدری 1
  • غلام عباس کاظمی 2
  • صمد امام قلی زاده 1
Abstract [Persian]

برای بهبود مدیریت منابع آب زیرزمینی بیش از دو دهه است که از مدل های جریان آب زیرزمینی استفاده می شود. مدلسازی جریان آب زیرزمینی با GMS در آبخوان دشت دامغان در شمال ایران که با افت سطح آب و مخاطرات زیست محیطی مختلفی روبروست نشان می‌دهد که الف) در بدترین شرایط، تا سال 2019 سطح آب این آبخوان 320 سانتیمتر پایین می‌‌آید و ب) نشست سطح زمین به مقدار قابل توجهی به علت افت سطح آب در منطقه بویژه در جنوب دشت رخ خواهد داد. چهار سناریوی مختلف با تغییرمیزان بارندگی مدلسازی شده نشان می دهد که بعضی از نواحی دشت با تغییرات اقلیم تغییر رفتاری اندکی ازخود نشان میدهند در حالی که سایر نواحی بطور عمده ای تحت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم قرار می گیرند. با بکار گیری مدل GMS بهمراه دو مدل "برنامه ریزی بیان ژن (GEP)" و "رگرسیون خطی چندگانه (MLR)" و استفاده از داده های طولانی مدت افت سطح آب زیرزمینی، یک رابطه بین نشست زمین و افت سطح آب بدست آمد. نتایج این بخش از تحقیق نشان داد که با افت سطح آب زیرزمینی بمیزان 295 سانتیمتر و 343 سانتیمتر، نشست زمین بترتیب بمیزان 35/4 و 39/45 سانتیمتر خواهد بود. این تحقیق نشان داد که در دشت دامغان سطح آب زیر زمینی بطور مداوم در حال پایین آمدن و مقدار نشست زمین در حال افزایش می باشد. لذا پمپاژ از چاههای در واقع در نواحی با ریسک بالا باید کاهش یابد.

Keywords [Persian]

  • نشست زمین
  • دامغان
  • بهره برداری بیش از حد
  • مدلسازی آب زیرزمینی
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