Application of the rule extraction method to evaluate seismicity of Iran

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Department of earth sciences, college of sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

2 Department of geology, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran


Assessing seismic hazards involves specifying the likelihood, magnitude and location of earthquakes in a region. Predicting the seismic hazards is the first step in reducing the impact of the damage caused by an earthquake.  In this study, to fully utilize all the known parameters which may possibly affect the occurrence of earthquakes (mb ≥ 4.5); a data-driven rule-extraction method called the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) was used to find the rules governing the earthquakes that occur. The method produces Predictive Rule Based Seismicity Map (PRBSM) of Iran that shows regions with high earthquake hazards. The rules are based on a large number of geophysical and geological parameters. The PRBSM has been built based on earthquake data from the year 1900 up to the end of 2006 and has been validated using earthquakes from 2007 to the end of 2015. In addition, this method allows for the identification of the most important combination of parameters associated with earthquakes. For example, the isostatic anomaly has the highest correlation with earthquakes in Iran. A distinctive character of this paper is the predictive rule based method which can create online as well as offline maps which are flexible and readily automated


Article Title [Persian]

کاربرد روش استخراج قانون برای ارزیابی لرزه خیزی ایران

Author [Persian]

  • احمد زمانی 2
1 دانشگاه آزاد شیراز دانشکده زمین شناسی
2 دانشگاه آزاد شیراز دانشکده زمین شناسی
Abstract [Persian]

ارزیابی خطرات لرزه ای شامل تعیین احتمال، اندازه و محل وقوع زمین لرزه در یک منطقه می باشد. پیش بینی خطرات لرزه ای اولین گام در کاهش تاثیر آسیب های ناشی از زلزله است. در این مطالعه با بهره گیری از روش طبقه بندی و رگرسیون داده کاوی و استفاده از کلیه پارامترهای موجود که احتمالا بر وقوع زلزله بالای 4.5 ریشتر تاثیر می گذارند ، قوانین حاکم بر لرزه خیزی استخراج گردیده است. این قوانین بر اساس تعداد زیادی از پارامترهای زمین شناسی و ژئوفیزیکی ایران استخراج و بر اساس آنها نقشه پیش بینی کننده لرزه خیزی ایران، که مناطق با لرزه خیزی بالا رانشان میدهد، تهیه شده است. مدل بر اساس داده های لرزه ای از سال 1900 تا 2006 تهیه و بر اساس داده های لرزه ای سال 2007 تا 2015 اعتبار سنجی گردیده است. همچنین مدل، پارامترهایی که دارای بیشترین اهمییت در وقوع زلزله هستند را تعیین می نماید. نتایج حاکی از آنست که ناهنجاری ایزوستازی، دارای بالاترین اهمییت در وقوع زلزله در ایران می باشد. ویژگی شاخص این تحقیق ارائه روشی نوین برای تولید نقشه خطر لرزه ای به صورت آنلاین یا آفلاین که به صورت خودکار و به سهولت تهیه می شود، است.

Keywords [Persian]

  • درخت تصمیم
  • مدل پیش بینی کننده
  • نقشه خطر لرزه ای
  • ایران
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