The Marvast alluvial aquifer in Yazd Province (central Iran) has experienced increasing groundwater abstraction for agricultural and industrial purposes, causing continuous decline in groundwater levels, disruption of aquifer balance, and serious threat to its long-term sustainability. In this study, the aquifer was simulated under steady-state and transient conditions over a nine-year hydrological period from November 2012 to September 2021. The calibration and validation results with R²=0.92 and RMSE=1.06 m, confirmed the accuracy and reliability of the model. The average hydraulic conductivity and specific yield were estimated at 10 m/day and 5%, respectively, indicating the heterogeneity of the alluvial sediments, resulted in a non-uniform aquifer response to groundwater abstractions. The highest groundwater-level decline, with an average annual rate of about 0.7 m, occurred in the northern areas where pumping wells are highly concentrated. Groundwater level predictions with continuation of current conditions up to September 2030 (scenario I) indicated that groundwater depletion will be continued in the northern parts of the aquifer, with a cumulative decline of 6.5–7 m. Given the proximity of the northeastern aquifer boundary to the Marvast Desert, this trend may increase the risk of saline water intrusion and groundwater quality deterioration. As compared with scenario I, groundwater level is projected to rise averagely about 0.62 m under 10% reductions in groundwater abstraction (scenario II) with the most pronounced improvement at the north. Therefore, sustainable groundwater management measures including abstraction control and artificial recharge are essential in this critical aquifer.
Moradi, F. and Jafari, H. (2026). Optimization of Hydrogeological Parameters and Forecasting Dynamic Behavior of Marvast Aquifer (Yazd) using a Numerical Model. Geopersia, (), -. doi: 10.22059/geope.2026.410127.648861
MLA
Moradi, F. , and Jafari, H. . "Optimization of Hydrogeological Parameters and Forecasting Dynamic Behavior of Marvast Aquifer (Yazd) using a Numerical Model", Geopersia, , , 2026, -. doi: 10.22059/geope.2026.410127.648861
HARVARD
Moradi, F., Jafari, H. (2026). 'Optimization of Hydrogeological Parameters and Forecasting Dynamic Behavior of Marvast Aquifer (Yazd) using a Numerical Model', Geopersia, (), pp. -. doi: 10.22059/geope.2026.410127.648861
CHICAGO
F. Moradi and H. Jafari, "Optimization of Hydrogeological Parameters and Forecasting Dynamic Behavior of Marvast Aquifer (Yazd) using a Numerical Model," Geopersia, (2026): -, doi: 10.22059/geope.2026.410127.648861
VANCOUVER
Moradi, F., Jafari, H. Optimization of Hydrogeological Parameters and Forecasting Dynamic Behavior of Marvast Aquifer (Yazd) using a Numerical Model. Geopersia, 2026; (): -. doi: 10.22059/geope.2026.410127.648861
)