Climate change is one of the most significant challenges for some arid and semi-arid regions, potentially limiting access to water resources in the future. Integrated water resource management in these areas could be a viable approach to adapt the impacts of climate change. This study examines the effects of climate change on the surface and groundwater resources of the Khorramabad River Basin using the MODFLOW and WEAP models. Initially, the current conditions of surface and groundwater resources were simulated monthly using the WEAP and MODFLOW models for the statistical period from October 2010 to September 2023. The two models were then linked, yielding values of NSE=0.87, RMSE=0.65, and R²=0.97, indicating the acceptable performance of the WEAP-MODFLOW model in simulating surface and groundwater. Subsequently, the status of surface and groundwater resources was projected for the future (2025–2060) under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results from these scenarios show a decline in annual average precipitation and an increase in minimum and maximum annual temperatures. According to the results of the integrated WEAP-MODFLOW model, the annual average river discharge, groundwater levels, and aquifer storage will decline under SSPs scenarios compared to the baseline period. Therefore, Climate change will hinder the availability of drinking and industrial water. Constructing the Makhmalkouh Dam could nearly fulfill the water demands for both drinking and industrial sectors across all three SSPs scenarios. This dam's construction would also mitigate groundwater level drawdown and increase aquifer storage relative to a scenario without the dam.
Amiri, R. , Mirzaee, S. Y. and Chitsazan, M. (2025). Evaluation and Management of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Khorramabad River Basin, Iran, Using an Integrated Modeling Approach. Geopersia, (), -. doi: 10.22059/geope.2025.393939.648817
MLA
Amiri, R. , , Mirzaee, S. Y. , and Chitsazan, M. . "Evaluation and Management of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Khorramabad River Basin, Iran, Using an Integrated Modeling Approach", Geopersia, , , 2025, -. doi: 10.22059/geope.2025.393939.648817
HARVARD
Amiri, R., Mirzaee, S. Y., Chitsazan, M. (2025). 'Evaluation and Management of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Khorramabad River Basin, Iran, Using an Integrated Modeling Approach', Geopersia, (), pp. -. doi: 10.22059/geope.2025.393939.648817
CHICAGO
R. Amiri , S. Y. Mirzaee and M. Chitsazan, "Evaluation and Management of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Khorramabad River Basin, Iran, Using an Integrated Modeling Approach," Geopersia, (2025): -, doi: 10.22059/geope.2025.393939.648817
VANCOUVER
Amiri, R., Mirzaee, S. Y., Chitsazan, M. Evaluation and Management of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Khorramabad River Basin, Iran, Using an Integrated Modeling Approach. Geopersia, 2025; (): -. doi: 10.22059/geope.2025.393939.648817
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