پیش بینی اقت سطح آب و ارزیابی فرونشست زمین در آبخوان دامغان با ترکیب مدلهای جی ام اس و جی ای پی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه شاهرود

چکیده

برای بهبود مدیریت منابع آب زیرزمینی بیش از دو دهه است که از مدل های جریان آب زیرزمینی استفاده می شود. مدلسازی جریان آب زیرزمینی با GMS در آبخوان دشت دامغان در شمال ایران که با افت سطح آب و مخاطرات زیست محیطی مختلفی روبروست نشان می‌دهد که الف) در بدترین شرایط، تا سال 2019 سطح آب این آبخوان 320 سانتیمتر پایین می‌‌آید و ب) نشست سطح زمین به مقدار قابل توجهی به علت افت سطح آب در منطقه بویژه در جنوب دشت رخ خواهد داد. چهار سناریوی مختلف با تغییرمیزان بارندگی مدلسازی شده نشان می دهد که بعضی از نواحی دشت با تغییرات اقلیم تغییر رفتاری اندکی ازخود نشان میدهند در حالی که سایر نواحی بطور عمده ای تحت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم قرار می گیرند. با بکار گیری مدل GMS بهمراه دو مدل "برنامه ریزی بیان ژن (GEP)" و "رگرسیون خطی چندگانه (MLR)" و استفاده از داده های طولانی مدت افت سطح آب زیرزمینی، یک رابطه بین نشست زمین و افت سطح آب بدست آمد. نتایج این بخش از تحقیق نشان داد که با افت سطح آب زیرزمینی بمیزان 295 سانتیمتر و 343 سانتیمتر، نشست زمین بترتیب بمیزان 35/4 و 39/45 سانتیمتر خواهد بود. این تحقیق نشان داد که در دشت دامغان سطح آب زیر زمینی بطور مداوم در حال پایین آمدن و مقدار نشست زمین در حال افزایش می باشد. لذا پمپاژ از چاههای در واقع در نواحی با ریسک بالا باید کاهش یابد.

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